Working Papers
Incarceration of African American Men and the Impacts on Women and Children [Revised March 19, 2020]
Abstract
Since the early 1970s, the United States has experienced a dramatic surge in imprisonment, especially among African American men. This paper investigates the causal effects of black male incarceration on black women’s marriage and labor market outcomes, as well as its effects on black children’s family structure and long-run economic outcomes. To establish causality, I exploit plausibly exogenous changes in sentencing policies across states and over years and construct a simulated instrumental variable for the incarceration rate. I find that black male incarceration reduces black women’s marriage, but increases employment for more educated women. Moreover, black male incarceration increases out-of-wedlock births and negatively affects black children’s educational attainment. Finally, black men at either the extensive or intensive margin of incarceration affect women and children differently. The results suggest the consequences of the tough-on-crime policies for inequality and racial gaps, which could be taken into account when reforming sentencing policies.
Since the early 1970s, the United States has experienced a dramatic surge in imprisonment, especially among African American men. This paper investigates the causal effects of black male incarceration on black women’s marriage and labor market outcomes, as well as its effects on black children’s family structure and long-run economic outcomes. To establish causality, I exploit plausibly exogenous changes in sentencing policies across states and over years and construct a simulated instrumental variable for the incarceration rate. I find that black male incarceration reduces black women’s marriage, but increases employment for more educated women. Moreover, black male incarceration increases out-of-wedlock births and negatively affects black children’s educational attainment. Finally, black men at either the extensive or intensive margin of incarceration affect women and children differently. The results suggest the consequences of the tough-on-crime policies for inequality and racial gaps, which could be taken into account when reforming sentencing policies.
Divorce Laws and Assortative Mating in the Marriage Market [Revised August 8, 2019]
Abstract
In the 1970s, many states introduced unilateral divorce laws, which allow one spouse to terminate the marriage without the consent of the other spouse. There has also been an increasing prevalence of positive assortative matching in the marriage market. This paper investigates whether the introduction of unilateral divorce contributes to the higher levels of assortative matching in the marriage market and the heterogeneous effects across states with different marital property division systems. I use a synthetic control method to compare the correlation of newly married spouses’ premarital income between newlyweds in states that introduced unilateral divorce laws and those in states that did not introduce unilateral divorce laws in the 1970s. I find that on average, the introduction of unilateral divorce increases the correlation of spouses’ pre-marital income by 11.2%. A state-by-state analysis reveals that the results are mixed for states that divide marital property according to the legal title of the property upon divorce (i.e., common law property). Nevertheless, for states that divide marital property equally upon divorce (i.e., community property), I find that the introduction of unilateral divorce increases assortative matching in the marriage market, with an average effect of 25.6%.
In the 1970s, many states introduced unilateral divorce laws, which allow one spouse to terminate the marriage without the consent of the other spouse. There has also been an increasing prevalence of positive assortative matching in the marriage market. This paper investigates whether the introduction of unilateral divorce contributes to the higher levels of assortative matching in the marriage market and the heterogeneous effects across states with different marital property division systems. I use a synthetic control method to compare the correlation of newly married spouses’ premarital income between newlyweds in states that introduced unilateral divorce laws and those in states that did not introduce unilateral divorce laws in the 1970s. I find that on average, the introduction of unilateral divorce increases the correlation of spouses’ pre-marital income by 11.2%. A state-by-state analysis reveals that the results are mixed for states that divide marital property according to the legal title of the property upon divorce (i.e., common law property). Nevertheless, for states that divide marital property equally upon divorce (i.e., community property), I find that the introduction of unilateral divorce increases assortative matching in the marriage market, with an average effect of 25.6%.
The Geography of Jobs and the Gender Wage Gap (with Yichen Su)
Abstract
Prior studies have shown that gender differences in commuting preferences can lead women to give up higher wages in exchange for a shorter commute compared with men, indicating that spatial commuting friction could potentially exacerbate the gender wage gap. We study how much the spatial distribution of jobs affects commuting friction and contributes to the gender wage gap. We first document that the gender wage gap is considerably larger for workers living far from high-paying jobs. Then, we develop a job choice model to analyze the role of commuting preferences and commuting friction. Using data from the American Community Survey, the Zip Code Business Patterns, and a travel time matrix, we estimate (1) the indifference curve between wage and commute time with a lower-envelope estimator using data on the observed job bundles chosen by workers, and (2) the wage return to commuting faced by each worker with an upper-envelope estimator using data on the spatial distribution of jobs faced by the worker. Based on the estimates and the job choice model, we find that given the distribution of jobs and workers, the gender difference in commuting preferences accounts for 33% of the observed gender wage gap. Preliminary results show that reducing commute time by 10% (e.g., through improved transportation) can lower the gender wage gap by 2.4%.
Prior studies have shown that gender differences in commuting preferences can lead women to give up higher wages in exchange for a shorter commute compared with men, indicating that spatial commuting friction could potentially exacerbate the gender wage gap. We study how much the spatial distribution of jobs affects commuting friction and contributes to the gender wage gap. We first document that the gender wage gap is considerably larger for workers living far from high-paying jobs. Then, we develop a job choice model to analyze the role of commuting preferences and commuting friction. Using data from the American Community Survey, the Zip Code Business Patterns, and a travel time matrix, we estimate (1) the indifference curve between wage and commute time with a lower-envelope estimator using data on the observed job bundles chosen by workers, and (2) the wage return to commuting faced by each worker with an upper-envelope estimator using data on the spatial distribution of jobs faced by the worker. Based on the estimates and the job choice model, we find that given the distribution of jobs and workers, the gender difference in commuting preferences accounts for 33% of the observed gender wage gap. Preliminary results show that reducing commute time by 10% (e.g., through improved transportation) can lower the gender wage gap by 2.4%.
Mating Preferences and Housing Prices in China: Evidence from Online Mate Search (with Joy Chen) [Revised May 22, 2019]
Abstract
We estimate the effects of China’s surging house prices on individuals’ marital preferences and equilibrium assortative matching patterns. Using data from China’s largest dating website, we estimate mate preferences based on users’ decision to reply to a first-time message from a contact. We find that (1) site users, in particular women, have strong preferences for home-ownership, and increases in housing prices are associated with higher reply rate by women; (2) compared to non-homeowners, homeowners have stronger preferences for home-ownership; (3) home-ownership increases users’ competitiveness and this effect becomes more pronounced for men when as housing prices increase; (4) there is weak evidence on the impact of housing prices on equilibrium assortative matching patterns.
We estimate the effects of China’s surging house prices on individuals’ marital preferences and equilibrium assortative matching patterns. Using data from China’s largest dating website, we estimate mate preferences based on users’ decision to reply to a first-time message from a contact. We find that (1) site users, in particular women, have strong preferences for home-ownership, and increases in housing prices are associated with higher reply rate by women; (2) compared to non-homeowners, homeowners have stronger preferences for home-ownership; (3) home-ownership increases users’ competitiveness and this effect becomes more pronounced for men when as housing prices increase; (4) there is weak evidence on the impact of housing prices on equilibrium assortative matching patterns.
Work in Progress
Location Choices and the Role of Marriage Market: Evidence from U.S. Young Workers
Mass Incarceration and Stopped Convergence in Black-White Educational Attainment